The peace in Ethiopia's Tigray region is hanging by a thread as the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) announced a military alliance with six other armed groups this week, marking a dramatic turn in what many hoped was a resolved conflict.
On Sunday, the TPLF made the bold announcement that it has joined forces with six other armed groups in Ethiopia to remove the federal government led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed from Addis Ababa. This development has sent shockwaves across the country and raised serious concerns about a return to the devastating conflict that has haunted the region for years.
The announcement came just hours before the TPLF launched what it described as an "all-out offensive" against government positions in the Afar and Amhara regions early Monday morning. A statement shared on social media by a TPLF official expressed deep frustration with the international community's inability to prevent renewed fighting, saying it was "heartbreaking" that despite all efforts to prevent another round of war, they were forced to act.
The Human Cost
The previous war between these forces was catastrophic. The African Union's mediator estimated that approximately 600,000 people lost their lives as the fighting pushed the region to the edge of famine. Families were torn apart, communities destroyed, and an entire generation was marked by trauma and loss. The psychological toll on survivors remains profound, with many still struggling with the memories of violence and displacement.
Now, as fresh hostilities emerge, there are grave concerns that this cycle of destruction may repeat itself.
Military Escalation on Ground
The situation spiralled rapidly with reports of military action intensifying across multiple fronts. On Tuesday, the southern town of Alamata came under heavy bombardment. According to the town's mayor, Mogos Shiferaw, more than five drones and one fighter jet carried out over 21 strikes starting around 3:30 in the morning. The attack killed at least 14 people and left 22 others wounded. The mayor claimed that all casualties were civilians and accused federal forces of deliberately targeting two secondary schools, saying the facilities had been used as military bases during the civil war but were unoccupied at the time of the strikes.
The BBC has not independently verified these allegations, and the Ethiopian government has not commented on the reported strikes.
Humanitarian Concerns Mount
Beyond the military dimensions, there are serious humanitarian concerns. The US State Department's Bureau of African Affairs condemned a separate drone strike that took place on Monday, which targeted a convoy of Catholic vehicles carrying food aid. The State Department called for an immediate investigation and urged all parties to resolve their differences through dialogue and take steps to prevent such incidents from happening again.
The TPLF has also accused the federal government of violating international humanitarian and human rights laws, claiming that public services and critical infrastructure have been disrupted across the region.
What Sparked This Crisis
Both the Addis Ababa government and the TPLF have faced criticism over delays in implementing key provisions of the Pretoria Agreement, the African Union-brokered peace deal that formally ended the conflict in November 2022. Back in July, Prime Minister Abiy accused the TPLF of preparing for renewed conflict during a parliamentary address, a warning that now appears to have been prescient.
The TPLF has its own grievances. The party previously led Tigray's interim administration following the ceasefire, but just before the general elections in May, which were not held in Tigray due to security concerns, the TPLF restored its pre-war administration and disbanded the interim government appointed by Abiy.
There have also been reports that the TPLF has been forcibly recruiting young men to join its forces, adding to concerns about the conflict's expansion.
Airports and Airlines Feel the Impact
The military situation has real consequences for ordinary people. Following the seizure of federally administered airports in Tigray, the TPLF has taken control of key facilities. Residents of Mekelle, Tigray's main city, told the BBC that local forces took over the city's airport from the national police early Wednesday. In response, Ethiopian Airlines has cancelled all flights to Tigray, effectively cutting off air access to the region.
Getachew Reda, a cabinet minister and key TPLF adviser, has become the face of the escalation. Previously, he led Tigray's interim administration before falling out with the TPLF in 2025 and joining the federal government.
A Region Bracing for Uncertainty
Ethiopia's government and the TPLF have now accused each other of launching offensives, with each side claiming they were forced into a defensive posture. The federal government claims Tigrayan forces took control of airports and launched offensives into neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions. The TPLF, meanwhile, says they were forced into what they call a "defensive war."
The two-year war that ended in 2022 left deep scars. Now, as accusations fly and military operations intensify, the people of Tigray and surrounding regions are facing an uncertain future. The international community, which invested considerable effort in brokering the 2022 peace deal, is watching closely and urging restraint.
What happens next could determine whether Ethiopia finds its way back to lasting peace or descends into another cycle of conflict that the region can ill afford.
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