Kenyans who have been walking out of supermarkets empty-handed in search of milk now have an explanation from State House, though not everyone will find it convincing. President William Ruto's economic adviser, Dr David Ndii, says the empty shelves are caused by more people buying milk, not by a lack of it.
Speaking on Tuesday, Ndii insisted that the country has not run short of milk. He said both farm output and the amount that processors collect have grown since the current government came into office. Quoting figures from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), he said national milk production has gone up by 20 per cent to about 5.6 billion litres. Over the same period, he added, the milk taken in by processors has jumped by 34 per cent.
For Ndii, the numbers leave one question unanswered. If more milk is being produced and more is reaching processors, why are the shelves bare? His own answer is that demand has grown faster than supply. He pointed to the affordable housing projects, where he says hundreds of thousands of people report to work every day. According to him, anyone visiting those sites will find crates of milk on hand, since milk is part of what workers are provided with. He also suggested that the eating and drinking habits of lower-income households may be changing, with more families now buying milk regularly.
His comments come at a time when shoppers and shop owners are feeling the pinch. Several supermarkets and retail outlets have reported shortages, with some limiting how much a customer can buy. Many consumers say they can no longer find the brands they usually buy. The shortage has also hit pockets. KNBS data shows that the price of fresh packaged milk rose by six per cent in September, while long-life UHT milk went up by eight per cent.
Other figures paint a less comfortable picture. A report released on October 19 found that milk delivered to processors had fallen from 88.89 million litres in May to 75 million litres in August 2026, a drop of about 16 per cent. The Kenya Dairy Board blamed this mainly on drought and the high cost of animal feed. The same report also pointed to problems in collecting, processing and distributing milk.
The KNBS Leading Economic Indicators dashboard for August 2026 tells a similar story. It shows that formal milk intake stood at 77.1 million litres, which is 5.1 per cent lower than the 81.3 million litres recorded in July.
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