US President Donald Trump has told Ukraine that it is time for a new leader. He said this after President Volodymyr Zelensky criticised a new American deal that will allow Russian diesel back into the US market. For Ukraine and its European friends, the move has raised fresh worries about money for Russia's war. For Trump, the deal is about one thing above all: bringing down the price of fuel at home before the midterm elections.
The row started when Zelensky spoke out against the agreement. He warned that letting millions of tonnes of Russian diesel flow into the United States would give Moscow more cash to keep fighting in Ukraine.
He described the deal as a gift to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Zelensky's reaction was sharp, but it was not new. He has been pushing Washington to keep pressure on Moscow for months.
Trump did not take the criticism quietly. Speaking to reporters outside the White House on Saturday, he said Zelensky "wants to make problems for the world" by continuing to approve attacks on Russian oil refineries. He said Ukraine's leader had better stop, and then suggested that Ukraine should find a new leader who can make a deal. He has said similar things before.
Last December, he called for fresh elections in Ukraine, saying Ukrainian voters should have a chance to replace Zelensky. Ukraine has been under martial law since Russia invaded in 2022, which means national elections are suspended.
The diesel deal itself is worth a closer look. Trump confirmed on Friday that an agreement had been reached with Moscow to pause sanctions on Russian diesel exports until 7 April. Under the arrangement, Russia would first release about 300,000 tonnes of diesel into the American and global market. Another 500,000 tonnes would follow in November.
Trump later wrote on his Truth Social account that a further million tonnes would come after that, and then roughly three million more within a short time. He added, however, that the later deliveries would depend on the condition of Russia's diesel refineries. That condition is a big question mark, because Ukraine has been hitting those same refineries with drones.
Russia has had a rough ten months on the fuel front. Ukrainian drone strikes on its oil refineries have caused two waves of serious fuel shortages across the country. The International Energy Agency estimates that diesel production in Russia has dropped by about 30 percent.
This is the situation Trump is now trying to use to his advantage. By easing sanctions, he hopes to get more diesel onto world markets and push prices down.
Those prices are a real problem for ordinary Americans. The average price of diesel is now $6.28 a gallon, according to the AAA motoring group. That is up from $5.94 last month and $3.68 a year ago. Diesel is used to move almost everything, from food trucks to farm machines, so when it gets expensive, the cost of goods rises across the board.
Many Americans are angry about higher petrol and diesel prices, and that anger has hurt Trump's standing in opinion polls. Analysts say the White House is under pressure to show quick results before voters go to the polls for the midterms.
The fuel crisis has its roots in a bigger conflict. The war involving Iran, which began in February, was launched by the United States and Israel. It has badly disrupted global fuel supplies. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has been especially damaging, since roughly a fifth of the world's oil products usually pass through that narrow waterway.
Russia, a major oil producer, and Ukraine have also stepped up their strikes on each other's energy and transport facilities. Together, these attacks have squeezed global energy markets even further.
Trump has defended his approach by blaming others for the mess. He said that he had told Russia it could do whatever it wanted, as long as it did not hit the refineries, because he sees the refinery problem as a world problem.
He also praised Putin, saying that Putin could have made many deals but never does. Putin's envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, responded by calling Trump's move iconic and historic. He said Ukraine needed leadership that is truly focused on peace.
Not everyone agrees with that view. Zelensky has said the deal will not bring peace. He argued that it lets Moscow raise new money to buy military equipment and carry on bombing Ukrainian cities. He accused Russia of taking the deal to mean that it can keep fighting.
Zelensky also spoke with several allies on Saturday, asking them to make what he called real decisions to protect lives in Ukraine and to defend European security.
Europe has been equally unhappy. The EU's foreign affairs chief, Kaja Kallas, echoed Zelensky's concerns. She said that suspending sanctions gives Moscow more money to wage war. She stressed that this was not the time to ease pressure on Russia, and that Europe would not do so.
European foreign ministers were also expected to approve the biggest package of sanctions against Russia since the full-scale invasion began. The timing of the American deal has therefore put Washington and Brussels on opposite sides at a sensitive moment.
Britain has also stood behind Ukraine. A spokesperson for Downing Street said the British Prime Minister had spoken with Zelensky and offered him complete solidarity. According to the spokesperson, the two leaders agreed that Russia should accept an immediate energy ceasefire and stop attacking shipping in the Black Sea.
The spokesperson argued that such a ceasefire would quickly free up more energy and food supplies for the global market. In other words, the message from London was that a ceasefire could help everyone, including ordinary families who are struggling with rising costs.
For Kenyans, these events may seem far away. Yet the effects of global fuel prices reach Nairobi and the rest of the country very quickly. When diesel goes up in the world market, transport companies, matatu operators, and farmers feel the pinch.
The cost of moving maize, tea, and vegetables rises, and in the end shoppers pay more at the market. This is why many Kenyans follow what happens between the United States, Russia, and Ukraine so closely, even when the fighting is thousands of kilometres away.
What happens next is still unclear. The diesel pause runs until 7 April, and the amount of oil that actually reaches the market will depend on how well Russia's refineries recover. Ukraine's strikes may continue, and the war shows no clear sign of ending.
Trump has made it clear that he wants results, and Zelensky has made it clear that he will not accept a deal that rewards Russia for the war. Between these two positions, the people who will feel the impact most are ordinary citizens who have to deal with higher fuel prices every day.
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