Hunger is set to bite harder across parts of Africa in the coming months, and the people who will feel it most are families already struggling with war, bad weather and rising prices. A new food security forecast from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network, known as FEWS NET, says between 155 million and 165 million people in the countries it monitors could need urgent food help by April 2027. That is roughly 11 per cent of the combined population of those countries.
The numbers are big, but the story is not the same everywhere. Some countries are looking at worse conditions than last year, while others are expected to get a small break. Put together, the forecast paints a picture of a continent where conflict, drought, floods and money problems are pushing families against each other for the same little food.
Sudan stands out as the country with the largest projected caseload. FEWS NET expects between 21 million and 21.99 million Sudanese people to need urgent food assistance in April 2027. This is a slight drop from the estimate the same agency gave in October 2026, but it is still higher than the same period last year and above the five-year average.
Four years of war have wrecked farms, emptied markets and forced millions from their homes. Poor harvests and weather shocks have made things worse. The forecast says emergency-level hunger is likely to stay widespread in Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan, two regions that have been hit hard by fighting.
The concern does not stop at emergency levels. FEWS NET has also flagged a credible risk of famine in parts of Greater Kordofan and North Darfur, as well as in some areas of South Darfur where large numbers of displaced people are living. For anyone who has followed Sudan's war, these warnings will sound painfully familiar, but they are a reminder that the crisis is far from over.
South Sudan is facing one of the grimmest outlooks in the report. FEWS NET estimates that between 55 and 60 per cent of the country's population could need food help in April 2027. That is the highest share among all the countries assessed. Years of conflict have wiped out many families' livelihoods. On top of that, El Niño-linked drought has hit crop production, and families are running out of their own food stocks earlier than usual.
The lean season, the months before new harvests come in, is starting unusually early. In Upper Nile and Jonglei, some households could face Catastrophe-level hunger, which is the step just before famine. Aid workers in those areas will be watching closely in the months ahead.
The report says that April 2027 needs are expected to be higher than last year and higher than the five-year average. In other words, this is not just a bad season. It is a sign that the problem is getting deeper and staying longer.
Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo each have between 16 million and 16.99 million people projected to need urgent food assistance in April 2027. In Nigeria, the main problem is insecurity. Armed conflict keeps farmers away from their fields and blocks people from getting to markets or earning a living, especially in parts of Borno State. Some local government areas are so hard to reach that aid is limited, and hunger there is expected to remain severe. Crisis-level conditions are widespread across the wider region.
In the DR Congo, conflict and displacement are disrupting daily life. Families who have fled their homes often cannot farm or find work. Meanwhile, food prices remain high and many households do not have enough money to buy what they need. Even where food is available in the market, many families simply cannot afford it.
Somalia is also on the list, with between five million and 5.99 million people likely to need help in April 2027. The concern here is water rather than drought. FEWS NET warns that heavy rains during the October to December 2026 season could cause flooding. If the floods are as big as those seen in 1997 or 2019, the damage could be serious.
Crops could be destroyed, livelihoods could be lost, and communities could be cut off from markets and basic services for weeks. The agency says that under this worst-case scenario, famine could occur between October 2026 and January 2027 in parts of southern and central Somalia, and in some settlements for internally displaced people where acute malnutrition is already high. Somali families have lived through deadly floods before, and many will be hoping this warning comes to nothing.
The report also points to growing needs in Uganda, Chad, Zimbabwe, Madagascar and Angola when compared with April 2026. In Uganda, food insecurity is expected to continue in Karamoja and in refugee settlements, where poor rains, lost livestock and limited access to land and jobs are squeezing household incomes. In Zimbabwe, erratic rainfall and delayed maize harvests are likely to make food harder to access.
Madagascar faces below-average farm production and high staple food prices, which will keep the need for aid above last year's level. Angola is facing a similar mix of below-average harvests and rainfall deficits that threaten crops, pasture and livestock income.
It is not all bad news, though. FEWS NET projects lower food assistance needs in Kenya, Afghanistan, Mozambique, Zambia and Lesotho compared with April 2026. For Kenyan readers, this is a welcome sign, although it should be read with care. A lower projection in one season does not mean the risk has gone away. Drought, prices and unpredictable rains can change the picture quickly, and families who live on the edge can slide back into hunger with very little warning.
Looking at all the countries together, FEWS NET says total food assistance needs are expected to stay broadly similar to April 2026 and the recent five-year average. That may sound like a steady situation, but it hides a lot of movement. Some countries are getting worse, others are getting better, and the overall total stays high because the crises are so many and so large.
The agency is also clear about what its report does and does not cover. The figures apply only to the countries that FEWS NET monitors. They are not a complete count of everyone facing hunger in the world. Many other countries, including some not on this list, have their own food emergencies that do not show up in these numbers.
What the report makes clear is that the causes of hunger are tangled together. Conflict drives families out of their farms. Drought and floods destroy what little they have left. High prices make it hard to rebuild. And once households run out of savings and food stocks, even a small shock can push them into crisis.
Aid agencies have warned for years that the best way to stop this cycle is to act early, before the worst happens. Whether governments, donors and local leaders will move fast enough remains to be seen.
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