Kenya may soon have refineries and processing plants on its soil, built with American backing, and some of the finished products could be sold to the United States. Mining Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho has said the talks between Nairobi and Washington are now at an advanced stage, and the details he shared show a deal that is moving faster than many Kenyans realise.
Joho spoke in an interview with the news outlet Semafor. He said the discussions with US officials are about creating refineries and processing plants in Kenya that would partly supply the American market.
He also made it clear that this is not a one-office conversation on the American side. Commerce, Defence and State are all involved, which tells you how seriously Washington is treating the matter. In his words, several departments of the US government are at the table.
The minister added that talks with possible buyers are also going on. According to him, there are different products, different markets and different interests being discussed at the same time. In simple terms, the two governments are not only asking how to build the plants, they are also asking who will buy what comes out of them.
Why processing is the big word here
For many years, Kenya and several other African countries have dug up minerals and shipped them out raw. The real money, and most of the jobs, were made abroad where the ore was refined and turned into useful materials. Joho says the new partnership is meant to change that story. The plan is to process the minerals here so that Kenya keeps more of the value.
This is not a new line from the government. President William Ruto said in June that Kenya and the US were finalising a critical minerals agreement and that the minerals would be processed in Kenya. What has changed now is that the minister is describing the talks as far along, and he is tying them to a live tender that is due to close within weeks.
The Mrima Hill link
The tender in question is for Mrima Hill in Kwale County, on the Coast. The hill is known for niobium, a metal used in aerospace manufacturing, and for rare earth minerals. Joho said the partnership talks and the Mrima Hill bidding process are "intertwined." He said early geological studies point to niobium at the site. Other early assessments have also suggested cobalt, copper and nickel in the country.
Six companies are competing to develop the deposit. They come from the United States, Australia and China. The government expects to wrap up the bidding in late October and then start talks with the preferred bidder on the next stage of the project. Mrima Hill is expected to play a big part in Kenya's plans to dig more minerals and process them locally.
Some other reports give a better idea of what is at stake. Mrima Hill's rare earth and niobium deposits have been estimated at about $62.4 billion. That figure is widely repeated, but it is an estimate. One local outlet has cautioned that the value Kenya finally gets will depend on what can be extracted economically and how the project is structured. Another analysis notes that resource definition work at Mrima Hill is still incomplete. So the billions on paper are not yet billions in the bank. [Kenya and US Explore Cooperation for Mrima Hill Rare Earths and Niobium.
From New York to the negotiating table
The latest comments come after President Ruto met US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in New York. That meeting took place on September 21 on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. The two sides looked at ways American firms could take part in adding value in Kenya's critical minerals sector.
Washington had already signalled support for the Kenyan position that minerals dug here should be processed here. Frank Garcia, the US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, said earlier that American companies were ready to help with local processing and value addition. For a government that has been pushing the "process before you export" message for a long time, that was welcome to hear.
A race between two giants
It is hard to talk about this deal without mentioning China. Critical minerals are at the centre of a tough contest between the United States and China. Rare earths and metals like cobalt and nickel are needed for phones, electric vehicles, wind turbines and military equipment, and China controls a large share of the world's processing. The US wants other places to buy from, and Kenya is now on that list.
The fact that Chinese companies are also bidding for Mrima Hill shows Kenya is keeping its options open. The government has not said the tender is only for American firms. That will matter to Kenyans who worry that the country could end up tied to one side in a global fight.
The money question
Mining is not yet a big earner. The government says the sector brings in roughly one per cent of the country's GDP. It wants that to grow to ten per cent within the next ten years. That is a huge jump, and nobody should pretend it will happen by digging alone. It will need factories, power, roads and trained people.
Joho spoke about this need for support. He said Kenya would have to offer incentives to attract the investments being proposed. These include special economic zones, access to ports, supporting infrastructure, and tax concessions. In his own words, the government has to provide all the necessary incentives for the plants to make sense for investors.
This is where the debate is likely to get sharp. Tax breaks and free zones can bring investors, but they can also mean the government collects less money from projects that use national resources. Kenyans will want to know how long the concessions will last and what the country gets in return, such as jobs, skills and a fair share of revenue.
Questions still hanging
There is a lot that is still unclear. A deal that is "advanced" is not a deal that is signed. Reports from the past few weeks say the US offer is still more of a political commitment than a finished contract, with the companies, financing and timelines not yet fixed. One report also says the proposed Kenya-US arrangement has been challenged in court by the Centre for Litigation and Trust. The public has also not seen the shortlist for Mrima Hill.
There is also plenty of noise online. Some social media posts claim Kenya has already sold Mrima Hill to America. There is no public evidence that Kenya has sold the hill or transferred ownership of its minerals to the United States. What exists is a set of talks and a tender, and both are still in progress.
The government has also been firm with foreign companies it feels are not doing enough locally. In the same interview, Joho criticised a company that exports soda ash, saying it has not processed minerals here to make glass and create jobs. He said talks with Tata Chemicals on "compliance issues" would decide its future in the country. Ruto had earlier told the company to pack up and leave. It shows the tone the government wants to set: come and invest, but add value here.
What to watch next
The next few weeks matter. If the bidding closes in late October as planned, the government will name a preferred bidder and start the harder talks on terms. That is when Kenyans will begin to see who gets what. Will the refinery be built near Mrima Hill or at the coast near the port? How much power will it need, and where will it come from? How many local people will be trained and hired? And if some of the processed minerals go to the US, who sets the price?
For young people in Kwale and the wider Coast region, the hope is simple: jobs and businesses that grow around the project. For the government, the hope is bigger, a new industry that lifts the economy. Both hopes depend on the details of the agreements, and those are still being written.
Kenya has moved from talking about its minerals to negotiating over them, with the world's two biggest economies watching. Whether the country comes out with a good deal will depend on how well its negotiators protect the public interest, and how closely Kenyans follow what is signed.
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